As is typical each year in most commercial real estate circles, the past three months have generally been characterized by the conclusion of 2009 business while preparing for 2010 initiatives. The latter part of January and most of February are often called “white board weeks” as landlords, tenants, property managers, brokers and investor plan for 2010 acquisitions, dispositions, new stores, upcoming renewals, and the like. But before doing that look at  some of the  market observations in the early quarter of 2010.

• Several larger investors have suggested they are back in “buy” mode and are sitting on uncommitted capital. This signifies that the current supply of good-quality offerings is unlikely to keep pace with overall demand moving forward into 2010, which should intensify competition and pricing even further in Manitoba and across Canada.

• Apartments remain the most sought-after asset class in Winnipeg, as overall vacancy rates remain near one per cent and condominium conversion opportunities are being capitalized on by local specialists. A combination of TIF announcements by both local and provincial governments as well as a move by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) to increase minimum down payment on new home and condo purchases would influence this sector in 2010.

• Moving into 2010 it is expected that new investors and existing landlords will step up their focus on the “quality” of a property’s rental income as opposed to the “quantity” of same.

• Buying respectable investment real estate remains a very competitive business in Winnipeg, suggesting buyers should work diligently to understand the fundamentals of the property they are considering by using professional advisors and high-quality underwriting information.

• With the yield in 10 year government of Canada bonds hovering around 3.4 per cent, the allure to real estate is obvious after the impact of taxes and inflation on fixed income investments. Typical investments in commercial real estate can comfortably generate levered yields of upwards of nine per cent.

• Leasing fundamentals in Winnipeg appear to be holding across the office, retail and industrial sectors, but the market will be monitoring potential tenant failures to ascertain those business that have exhausted all sources of case waiting for the economy to rebound. While economic growth in Winnipeg was among the strongest in the country last year, this market is by no means immune to the global impact of the 2008 and 2009 recession.

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