Tag Archives: Consumer Confidence

Canadian first time buyers rush to beat interest rate rises

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According to estate agents REMAX, nearly a third of the 19 major Canadian markets are reporting a larger number of sales than this time last year, and 70% say that average selling prices have increased. Prices in greater Vancouver have increased by as much as 20% this year with Hamilton Burlington showing an 8% increase year-on-year, and Winnipeg, Toronto and Québec city are all reporting price increases.

Much of this activity is thought to be due to first-time buyers anxious to take advantage of low interest rates and also because of the changes to mortgage lending for new homeowners that are stricter with shorter terms. In general the Canadian economy is well placed with consumer confidence rising and fears of a double dip recession receding, and the residential property market is preparing for a busy spring.

One factor that may hamper the market is the lack of affordable housing for first-time buyers and those on low incomes. This is leading planners and developers to change their criteria towards building smaller condo units and homes. This demand for reasonably priced property is expected to grow in coming years.

Even though home ownership rates are at nearly 70% there is still room for growth in the market and it seems unlikely that buyers will be deterred by the higher cost of lending and housing. Canadians still believe strongly in home ownership and don’t want to rent and pay someone else’s mortgage. This means that starter homes will become more and more necessary for first-time buyers.

http://www.property-abroad.com/canada/news-story/canadian-first-time-buyers-rush-to-beat-interest-rate-rises-19317049/

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CREA alters early 2011 housing forecast

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Housing sales in Canada is expected to be much better than what have been speculated before. This is because of the increasing consumer confidence that will partially offset the awaited deferment of interest rate hikes, this is how the Canadian Real Estate Association sees it.

CREA had earlier predicted that the national average home price in 2011 would fall by 1.3 per cent from last year to $326,000. This is contrary to what they have recently released that there will be 439,900 existing homes sold in 2011, down 1.6 per cent from 2010, but better than the nine per cent decline that CREA had forecast at the end of last year. Recent reports on building permits and housing starts are two indicators why the change in forecast has been made.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Tuesday that the pace of new-home construction in Canada increased slightly last month, rising to 170,400 units, up from 169,000 in December on a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That puts the country on a pace for about 10 per cent fewer housing starts than last year.

A moderation in housing starts is a sign that supply is contracting in line with reduced demand, which could avoid an unhealthy glut of available houses on the market if demand declines when interest rate hikes are announced.

CREA predicted Tuesday that some sales that would have been made later in the year will likely occur in the first quarter, as a result of the new rules. A previous change in mortgage rules last year contributed to extremely strong first-quarter demand as buyers sought to beat the deadline.

“This is expected to produce a milder version of the volatility in sales activity that we saw last year which resulted from additional transitory factors,” said CREA’s chief economist Gregory Klump.

Last year, sales were also pushed ahead to the first part of the year as buyers in two provinces — British Columbia and Ontario — rushed to avoid a switch to the harmonized sales tax on July 1.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2011/02/08/crea-forecast-2011.html#ixzz1Djy9l7Fy
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Canadian housing market had strong finish to 2009

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The housing market in Canada has been stronger in the second half of 2009 than was widely anticipated. That has been particularly true for residential resales.

The first quarter of 2009 was nearly disastrous for the existing home market, but all of that turned around in late spring and early summer. Record low mortgage rates have done the trick.

Potential homebuyers know that they are not likely to ever see interest rates this low again.

As for new home construction, it is worth remembering that an existing home sale is often a prelude to a new home purchase.

There have been other factors that have contributed to recent resale strength as well.

The home renovation tax credit extending through February of next year is an incentive to spruce up one’s property and then, perhaps, put it on the market.

Also, Canadian labour markets have held up better than in the U.S.

The service sector in particular has experienced little in the way of job losses.

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The November labour report showed an overall increase in employment in Canada of 79,000 jobs.

There has been only one really bad labour market report in the past four months, in October, and that was partly an adjustment after strong August and September numbers.

The improving labour market overall, the Bank of Canada’s commitment to keep its trend-setting overnight rate at 0.25% until next summer, and the end to the recession are all serving to raise consumer confidence levels.

Add to the foregoing that foreign investors are seeing this country as well-positioned to benefit from the recovery. Foreign investment money is being attracted to Canadian stocks, commodities and to commercial and residential real estate.

The net effect is to raise the prospects for new home construction. CanaData has somewhat revised upward its housing starts forecasts for next year. The latest figures are set out in the accompanying tables.

It is remarkable the degree to which housing starts in the largest cities in Canada dominate their provincial residential markets. In Quebec, Montreal usually accounts for almost 50% of total starts in the province.

Toronto housing starts are usually slightly more than half of the total in Ontario. Calgary and Edmonton each account for about one-third of Alberta’s total.

Finally, Vancouver starts traditionally make up between 55% and 60% of total starts in British Columbia.

http://dcnonl.com/article/id36930

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Housing Market on recovery

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“In the last six to nine months, demand for housing was decrease in Winnipeg and in Manitoba, but it has picked up a good deal. Sales of existing homes in November, 2009 set a dollar sales record of $173 million compared to $113 million in November, 2008. People have recognized that the worst of the downturn is over. Potential home buyers are now more willing to enter the marketplace, confident of what the future holds.” said Jeff Powell, senior market analyst for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation in Winnipeg.

This can be seen as a good sign of recovery, well, at least for the housing market. The prices of built houses are in recovery and more homes and condos are being constructed based from what Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation issued. The CMHC data foresees a 10% improvement in building and sales activity in 2010. However, the price growth of houses is yet unclear due to rising interest rates on Main Street which will have an impact with the Main Street recovery.

The said recovery is supported by growing employment rates and increased consumer confidence. As a matter of fact, The Bank of Canada will be raising short interest rates and lenders, who have more positive response to what the bond market says money cost, are already pricing higher rates into mortgages. The economic recovery and the status of the housing market right now rest on increasing consumer confidence. This could take an effort to maintain considering changing interest rates moving from a low 1.5% to 3% and 4$ or more.

Housing market trends in Canada had gone up and down for one reason, market liquidity. When market declines, houses for sale rise, house owners want to sell but couldn’t find the right deal. This goes the same way with buyers which yield to no closed business. On the other hand, during good market condition, house buyers become more eager to make deals before prices appreciate more. Liquidity rate and sales volume mark significant growth.

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New City Winnipeg Tax Assessment System

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When REALTORS® do a comparable market analysis, or CMA, on a property; they apply their expertise to a rigorous review of sales and listings of similar properties to determine what this property should sell for on the MLS®. If a property goes on the market this month, the CMA provides a sale price based on current market conditions, including other competing listings, prospective buyers for that type of property and the real estate market in general (e.g. consumer confidence, interest rate environment, etc.)

Accepting the final sale is an arm’s- length transaction, meaning it occurred on the open market between a willing buyer and a willing seller. The sale then potentially provides a good reference for others to as certain what their property may be worth when sold on MLS®.

Over the last year, the city’s property assessment department used 200,000 properties in Winnipeg to determine on a given date what each property would sell for on the open market. The new assessment roll for June 2010 property taxes is based on the market value of properties in April 2008. Continue reading →

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