If sustained, the near 25 per cent hike in gasoline prices since late 2010 will cost Canadian households an extra $12 billion at the pumps in 2011, according to new report from CIBC World Markets Inc.
In his latest Consumer Watch Canada report, Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC, wrote that as of 2010, total spending on energy by Canadian households was just over $88 billion.
“If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained and assuming the same price-elasticity observed in 2007-08, this spending will rise by more than $12 billion or close to $950 per household during the course of 2011,” said Tal. That’s equivalent to a seven per cent increase in the average Canadian income tax bill.
While Canadians overall are feeling the pinch from higher prices at the pump, it is the low- and middle-income households that are really feeling the squeeze. “Higher-income households are better able to absorb the increase in energy spending without much sacrifice to their non-energy spending,” added Tal. “In other words, the extra cost is largely borne by their savings.” But for the low and middle-income Canadians, the situation is very different.
While gas prices are eating up more of Canadians weekly pay cheques, Tal doesn’t expect to see drivers parking their car and taking the bus until prices come down. “If history is any guide, higher prices will not impact demand for gasoline in the near-term,” he added. “In the most recent energy shock, the 40 percent increase in prices between October 2007 and July 2008 met with virtually no change in the aggregate volume gasoline consumption.”
What Canadians did cut back on was the purchase of motor vehicles and parts as well as on less essential items such as sporting goods, clothing and personal care.
Tal also found that higher gas prices saw Canadians change their eating habits. “There is clear evidence that higher gasoline prices lead to reallocation of expenditures across and within food-consumption categories,” he added. “With gasoline expenditures rising, consumers substitute food-away-from home towards groceries. And within grocery stores, consumers substitute away from regular shelf-price products towards promotional items.”
“On average, it is estimated that the 25 per cent increase in a gas prices will cut the net price paid per grocery item by two to three per cent,” he added. He said that if it weren’t for the recent rise in the Canadian dollar, Canadian consumers would be feeling the heat of gasoline prices even more.
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