Strong market means house prices to rise in major cities, realtor says

Canada’s housing market will continue to be strong this year, with rising property values expected in all major markets, real estate brokerage firm Royal LePage said Thursday.

The company’s forecast called for prices across to country to rise 2.8 per cent by the end of 2012, after stronger gains last year.

Even pricey housing markets in Metro Vancouver and Toronto – where standard two-storey homes averaged $1.1 million and $629,188, respectively, in the last quarter – will see continued price appreciation in 2012, though the gain for Metro will be more muted, according to the broker-age firm’s forecast.

Metro Vancouver is expected to see its average house price climb 2.3 per cent to $802,000 in 2012, while Toronto is expected to see a 2.6-per-cent jump.

“Widespread calls for a major real estate correction in 2012 simply can’t be justified,” Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said in a statement.

“The industry has significant momentum entering the year, and buoyed by the stimulative effect of very low interest rates, we expect the market to continue to expand – albeit at a slower pace.”

However, Royal LePage said stronger gains will be seen in cities benefiting from commodity-based economies, such as Calgary, Regina and Winnipeg, where price gains will be in the range of four to five per cent.

According to the company, in the fourth quarter of 2011, the average price of a standard two-storey home in Canada was $375,427, up 4.2 per cent from a year earlier.

The average rate of a detached bungalow was up 6.1 per cent to $344,392, while condominiums gained 3.6 per cent to $234,680.

Statistics Canada reported Thursday that its new housing price index rose 0.3 per cent in November, following on a 0.2 per cent increase in October, and was up 2.5 per cent yearover-year.

Price increases in Toronto, Oshawa and Montreal offset declines in Calgary, Metro Vancouver and the Ontario metropolitan regions of Sudbury and Thunder Bay, the agency said.

In Vancouver, Statistics Canada said some builders offered promotional pricing in order to sell units, which helped push new-home prices 0.3 per cent in November from October, and made the

Builders in the other areas reported lowering prices in order to stimulate sales and remain competitive, while price increases elsewhere were attributed to higher material and labour costs.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has forecast the average price of a listed homes for resale to be $363,900 this year, up 1.2 per cent from 2011. The Canadian Real Estate Association predicted that the aver-age price would be relatively flat at $362,700.

Both forecasts were made in November.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Strong+market+means+house+prices+rise+major+cities+realtor+says/5990636/story.html

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Real estate flatline

The relentless climb of Nanaimo property values paused for a breather last year. Assessment notices went out to all Nanaimo property owners last week and many are finding the value little changed from 2011.

Average values for single-family homes, based on property assessments done by the agency on July 1 are down 1.27% from 2010.

Values rose slightly in several areas, but most neighbourhoods saw values down.

The most noticeable drops are clustered in north-end neighbourhoods, though central and south Nanaimo did not go unscathed.

One central-Nanaimo area saw average values down more than 10%.

A decade-long period of almost continuous growth was sidelined in 2011 by events outside local market forces. Housing sales slipped, especially at the higher end of the scale, where there are fewer buyers. Property values that doubled during the 2000s stopped rising. For the smart buyer, it creates a rare opportunity to get an ocean-view or waterfront property.

It isn’t the first time Nanaimo’s housing industry has skipped a beat and it is the nature of real estate markets to run in cycles.

“You look at the pressures in the market – unemployment, challenges with new builders, with HST, overall higher-end market challenges, it’s got to come out,” said Jim Stewart, Vancouver Island Real Estate Board past-president.

Realtors saw 2011 end with an average home selling price of $362,680, just $305 less than a year earlier, or essentially unchanged.

“Late last spring there was waiting with anticipation for the outcome of the HST vote, and (then) everyone was waiting to know who the next premier was to set the agenda for the year. Then in the fall everyone was concerned about the world market. Is Greece going to fail? You look at little Vancouver Island, there are places elsewhere in Canada prices are down doubledigit,” Stewart said.

The 2012 assessment roll puts a total value on all Nanaimo property at $12.742 billion, the bulk of which, $10.769 billion, is residential.

Those numbers are down slightly from 2011′s $12,683 billion total and $10.786 billion in residential. Those totals include about $1 billion in churches, downtown revitalization, pollution-control and other taxexempt property classes.

The B.C. Assessment Authority divides the city into 17 neighbourhoods, and the numbers it produces for each neighbourhood are what matter to homeowners.

Excluding apartments, vacant lots and condominiums, Jingle Pot/College Heights and Hawthorne saw average property values rise the most, at 1.14%. Average home values rose by less than 1% in Chase River/Cinnabar, Uplands/Sunshine Ridge/ Country Club, Hammond Bay and the extended downtown core areas.

The most noticeable drop was in the Commercial Industrial Bowen/Northfield area, where assessments fell 10.28%.

All other areas saw average values drop, with decreases of greater than 4% assessed in Townsite/Hospital, Dover/Dickenson, Long Lake North Island Highway and Protection Island areas.

For most homeowners, this year will be easier than most to figure out their property taxes simply by looking at their property’s assessed value.

Because the average value is so close to 2011, anyone whose assessment is close to last year’s can expect to pay close to the tax rate set by city council this spring.

“Assessments are unchanged, so it should be relatively easy to tell,” said Bill MacGougan, Nanaimo assessor.

While the HST and a sluggish economy are both hurting sales in higher-end properties classes, some see it as an opportunity to buy that dream property.

“When you think the average waterfront home is $800,000, if you get something for less than $800,000 it’s probably a pretty good buy,” Stewart said. Those deals exist because “there’s not that many buyers in that range.”

First-time buyers would be wise to make 2012 a year to renovate, rather than sell.

“If you bought in the last year or so it’s going to be challenging for you to exit on the profit side,” Stewart said.

http://www.canada.com/Real+estate+flatline/5983621/story.html

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Homeowner grant threshold raised to $1.285M

The B.C. government has raised the threshold for homeowner property grant to $1.285 million to accommodate rising property values.

The news comes as hundreds of thousands of annual property assessments are being prepared for B.C. property owners by the government. Last year, the threshold was $1.15 million. The grant effectively reduces the property tax paid by most B.C. homeowners by up to $1,045

Every year the province adjusts the grant to ensure 95.5 per cent of homeowners receive the full amount of the grant. Those with homes above the threshold may still be eligible for part of the grant.

“The homeowner grant provides a maximum reduction in residential property taxes on principal residences of $570 in the Capital, Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley regional districts and $770 elsewhere in the province,” said a statement issued by the government on Tuesday.

“An additional grant of $275 is available to those who are age 65 or over, permanently disabled or a veteran of certain wars,.”

“We continue to see challenging economic times around the world. By maintaining the homeowner grant, we continue to help families with the costs of owning their homes,” said Finance Minister Kevin Falcon in the statement.

The grant is only available to Canadian citizens and to landed immigrants who normally reside in B.C.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/01/03/bc-homeowner-grant.html

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Homeowners see lower costs with lower rates: RBC

Canadian homeowners caught a modest break during the third quarter as mortgage costs receded slightly, reversing a two-quarter trend in which affordability decreased.

A new report from RBC Economics says the driving factor was low interest rates, which helped reduce fixed mortgage rates across the country.

As a result, the bank says it was more affordable for Canadians to own a standard condominium, two-storey home or detached bungalow in the third quarter, though not by much.

The following RBC statistics include the total mortgage, utility and property taxes incurred by Canadian homeowners:

Owning a condo cost 29 per cent of median pre-tax household income at the national level, a drop of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.

A two-storey home also became cheaper to own, but still costing 48.8 per cent of household income. That was down by 0.6 percentage points.

Finally, a detached bungalow ate up 42.7 per cent of that same income, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the second quarter.

In terms of a regional picture, RBC says Vancouver remains the most expensive housing market in the country.

In a statement, RBC Chief Economist Craig Wright said the Vancouver-area has “sky-high property values in upscale neighbourhoods making it both extremely unaffordable and the most at risk of a downward correction.”

On the other hand, RBC says Alberta is among the most affordable provinces in which to buy a two-storey home, detached bungalow or condo.

RBC also says that the Manitoba market “showed some of the more significant improvement in affordability among the provinces in the third quarter.”

Daryl Harris, a Winnipeg-based mortgage professional with Verico One Link Mortgage and Financial, said he was surprised by the RBC report’s analysis of the Manitoba market.

“Affordability generally follows one of two things, either lower rates or a decrease in house prices and I have seen neither in our market,” Harris told CTVNews.ca in a telephone interview on Friday.

Looking ahead to 2012, RBC believes housing prices are unlikely to soar any time soon.

“We expect to see further slowing in the pace of home price increases next year, as housing demand levels out,” said Wright.

“These factors will set the stage for a period of relative stability in affordability trends in Canada.”

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Police Force Property Tax Hikes

Residential property tax increases since amalgamation have averaged less than one percent a year when inflation is taken into account, says city finance chief Rob Rossini, and this year’s 0.7 percent rise in the tax rate actually constitutes an inflation–adjusted decrease of more than two percent. In the last 11 years, all of the increase above inflation can be attributed to the police budget which climbed 5.1 percent this year and now accounts for over a tenth of total city spending, and more than 18 percent of the property tax bill.

Rossini’s figures include the effects of area rating and reassessment – but are city–wide averages so the actual results vary from property to property. In some parts of the amalgamated city, taxes have jumped sharply because of rising property values – or at least the values calculated by the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation based on sales of nearby and/or similar homes.

In 2011, the city expects to collect $692 million in property taxes, and provide $130 million to the police. That latter bill is up nearly $50 million since amalgamation. By comparison, the library budget rose just over $7 million in the same period – from $20.2 million in 2001 to $27.6 million this year.

Inflation has totaled just over 27 percent from 2000 to today according to Bank of Canada calculations. Hamilton tax increases have averaged 2.9 percent a year (not counting inflation) over the last 11 years. The hit nearly 6 percent in 2004 and 4.6 percent as recently as 2008, but have been “otherwise very modest” according to Rossini.

“Our tax adjusted increase with inflation is actually below zero last year and in 2001,” he told councillors last month. “I think that’s a very good record.”

The police budget actually recorded one of its largest jumps in 2001 – a 7.7 percent increase – and has only been below three and a half percent once in the last 11 years – in 2010 when the rise was 3.3 percent. In only one of those years did the police budget climb less than the city tax rate (and the difference was only a tenth of a percent) while in most years it has been sharply higher.

The detailed police budget in Hamilton remains secret, although the Toronto police force posts its detailed breakdown on the internet. However, salaries and related personnel costs are known to form over 80 percent.

Hamilton has 793 officers. That’s about 155 per 100,000 people. Halton, with a very similar sized population has 124 officers per 100,000, while Peel Region with 1.3 million people is at 148 per 100,000.

Crime rates have been falling in Canada, with criminal code incidents dropping five percent in 2010 over the previous year.
The crime severity index fell 6 percent in the same period, and crime levels are now lower than 1973.

The most recent annual report (2009) on the Hamilton Police Services website shows a slight drop in criminal calls for service between 2004 and 2009 despite rising population levels. Non–criminal service calls fell 14 percent in the same five year period, and the police budget expanded by nearly $22 million.

Toronto city council is pushing their police force for a 10 percent budget cut. Initially that was demanded for 2012 but has now been extended over two years.

Hamilton city council begins its 2012 budget deliberations later this month with a workshop on the operating budget on October 27. There are two more workshops in early November, and actual decisions start at the beginning of December when next year’s water and sewer rates will be determined.

http://www.viewmag.com/13915-Police+Force+Property+Tax+Hikes.htm

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Manitoba’s Housing Affordability Remains Steady Amid Sound Market Conditions: Rbc Economics

Manitoba’s housing market continued on the straight and narrow in the early part of 2011, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability report released today by RBC Economics. Housing affordability remains attractive in the province, with little change registered in the first quarter.

“Mounting homebuyer demand continued to be met with an equal-sized increase in homes being put out for sale,” said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. “This sense of balance across Manitoba kept property value appreciation under control.”

The RBC report indicates that home prices changed little in the first quarter. Prices rose modestly for detached bungalows and two-storey homes, while edging lower for condominium apartments (following a sizeable gain in the previous quarter).

The RBC housing affordability measures for Manitoba, which capture the province’s proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the cost of owning a home, were mixed in the first quarter of 2011 (an increase in measure means that owning a home is less affordable). The measure for the benchmark detached bungalow rose by 0.1 of a percentage point to 34.1 per cent and declined by 0.2 of a percentage point for condominium apartments to 20.3 per cent. The measure remained even for two-storey homes at 36.8 per cent.

“Manitoba is still one of only two provincial markets in Canada, along with Alberta, where measures have remained below long-term averages for all housing categories that we track,” added Hogue.

The majority of Canadian markets experienced weakened affordability in the first quarter of 2011. Most notable was the sizeable deterioration in British Columbia. More specifically, Vancouver saw significant gains in property values, which drove the already elevated cost of homeownership even higher. Quebec’s homebuyers also faced noticeable rises in ownership costs, while those in Atlantic Canada saw their affordability advantage somewhat diminish. The picture remained mixed in other areas of the country, with Ontario, Alberta and Saskatchewan experiencing ups and downs in ownership costs, depending on the housing type.

“Despite the latest erosion in affordability, provincial levels generally continue to stand near their long-term averages, suggesting that owning a home remains affordable or, at worst, slightly unaffordable across Canada – with Vancouver being a notable exception,” said Hogue.

RBC’s housing affordability measure for a detached bungalow in
Canada’s largest cities is as follows: Vancouver 72.1 per cent (up 3.4 percentage points from the last quarter), Toronto 47.5 per cent (up 0.8 of a percentage point), Montreal 43.1 per cent (up 2.0 percentage points), Ottawa 39.0 per cent (up 0.4 of a percentage point), Calgary 35.9 per cent (up 0.9 of a percentage point) andEdmonton 31.5 per cent (up 0.5 of a percentage point).

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/May2011/20/c6373.html

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Manitoba’s Homeownership Costs Among The Lowest In Canada: RBC Economics

Manitoba was one of only two provinces where homeownership costs stood below long term averages for all housing categories tracked by RBC in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability report released by RBC Economics Research.

“Manitoba’s housing market enjoyed the best of both worlds in the fourth quarter as home price moved a little higher yet ownership costs were lower,” said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. “Continued growth in household income coupled with drops in mortgage rates late last year more than offset the affordability-eroding effect of small gains in property values in the province.”

The RBC Housing Affordability Measures for Manitoba eased for all housing categories in the fourth quarter, pushing levels further below their long-term averages in the province.

The RBC Measures capture the proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a specified category of home. In the fourth quarter, the measure for the benchmark detached bungalow eased to 34.2 per cent (down 0.6 percentage points), the standard condominium decreased to 20.7 per cent (down 0.1 percentage points) and the standard two storey home dropped to 37.0 per cent (down 0.2 percentage points).

Sales of existing homes in the province significantly ramped up in the fall, reaching near historical peaks by December.

“The demand for housing is being boosted by the strongest net international immigration in the province since the mid 1950s and improved job prospects. Manitoba boasted Canada’s lowest unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, and we expect this to continue in 2011,” added Hogue.

RBC’s Housing Affordability Measure for a detached bungalow in Canada’s largest cities is as follows: Vancouver 68.7 per cent (down 0.4 percentage points from the last quarter), Toronto 46.8 per cent (down 0.5 percentage points), Montreal 41.3 per cent (down 0.4 percentage points), Ottawa 38.7 per cent (up 0.5 percentage points), Calgary 34.9 per cent (down 3.1 percentage points) and Edmonton 31.0 per cent (down 2.4 percentage points).

The RBC Housing Affordability Measure, which has been compiled since 1985, is based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property benchmark for the housing market in Canada. Alternative housing types are also presented including a standard two-storey home and a standard condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. For example, an affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 per cent of a typical household’s monthly pre-tax income.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/February2011/24/c5440.html

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Homeowners receiving property reassessments

WINNIPEG — The City of Winnipeg has sent out its second batch of property reassessment letters to Winnipeg homeowners, notifying them about the 2012 property values city assessors are thinking about assigning to their homes.

Every two years, the city reassesses the value of residential and commercial properties. It used to do this once every four years, but increased the frequency to ensure assessed values are closer in line with market values.

What is your opinion of your city tax assessment?
The city conducted a preliminary reassessment of all residential properties as of April 1, 2010. On that date, residential properties in Winnipeg increased by an average of 12 to 15 per cent over the same date in 2008, city assessor Nelson Karpa said.

But not all properties increased at the same rate. The city began mailing out reassessment notices in November, when 70,000 Winnipeg homeowners received their preliminary notices.

Another 62,000 homes were notified today. The final 76,000 homeowners will be notified in February.

All homeowners will be given a chance to discuss their preliminary reassessments at meetings with city assessment staff, who have the authority to change the assessments on the spot. The next round of meetings is slated for Waverley Heights Community Club on Jan. 24-27. Walk-ins are welcome, but you may also call 311 to set up a 15-minute appointment.

The city plans to mail out final reassessment notices in June. The appeal process will begin after that, Karpa said.

But simply winding up with a higher property assessment does not mean you will pay more taxes in 2012. Generally speaking, you only pay more property taxes if your assessment exceeds the city-wide average, which also includes commercial property assessments.

The city has yet to conduct its commercial property reassessments for 2012.

The other factor influencing tax increases is city council, which could vote to increase property taxes this year and in 2012. But council has not made such a move since 1997.

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Housing here slightly less affordable

OWNING a home in Manitoba just became a little less affordable thanks to a bump up in mortgage rates and higher house prices.

RBC Economics said Tuesday the cost of home ownership in the province edged up by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points in the July-to-September period.

The good news is it was “arguably the weakest deterioration” in affordability across the country, the bank said in its latest quarterly housing affordability report. In fact, this was the first decrease in affordability in Manitoba since early 2008.

RBC said the erosion in affordability was part of a countrywide trend.

“The reversal in the improving trend in affordability was caused by a recent pickup in key mortgage rates as well as gains in property values… ,” it said, noting the average posted rate on five-year conventional mortgages — the basis for the calculations in the RBC measures — went up modestly from a generational low of 5.45 per cent in the second quarter to 5.73 per cent in the third quarter.

And generally strong resale market activity across the country has heated up housing prices again since midsummer, after months of widespread softness, said senior RBC economist Robert Hogue.

He said that trend is likely to continue because house prices aren’t expected to fall any time soon and mortgage rates are headed higher in 2010.

He said Manitoba markets, in terms of affordability, are pretty close to long-term averages right now.

RBC’s affordability research measures the proportion of pre-tax household income required to service the cost of mortgage payments, property taxes and utilities.

Here’s how the affordability of four housing groups shaped up in Manitoba:

  • Affordability of detached bungalows increased by 0.4 per cent to 34.8 per cent, compared to a one per cent hike to 40.2 per cent in Canada.
  • Affordability of standard two-storey homes went up by 0.3 per cent to 37.5 per cent (1.2 per cent jump to 45.8 per cent in Canada).
  • Affordability of standard townhouses inched up by 0.2 per cent to 23 per cent (0.7 per cent increase to 32.3 per cent in Canada).
  • Affordability of standard condominiums increased by 0.3 per cent to 20.5 per cent (0.5 per cent increase to 27.6 per cent in Canada).

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/Housing-here-slightly-less-affordable.html

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Park makeover begins

There are rarely any major surprises in Winnipeg capital budgets because they are long-term documents that rely on stable, predictable funding to maintain and improve the bricks and mortar that hold the city together.

One exception to the rule this year was the addition of $8 million to support the redevelopment of Assiniboine Park. It’s a small amount when compared with the ambitious $180-million plan to reinvent the park and turn it into a major destination, but it shows the city is committed to the amenity. That’s important because the private sector is unlikely to support the redevelopment unless the city puts up some cash first.

The funding may not be all that was requested by the Assiniboine Park Conservancy, the group that has taken the park under its wing, but it’s more than enough to get started. The money specifically targets the old duck pond for renewal, as well as the construction of a family centre near the pond.

Cities, in case anyone hadn’t noticed, cost a heck of a lot of money to run, and parks are likely to take a back seat to critical infrastructure, which itself is suffering from years of underfunding.

There are some critics who say the city shouldn’t spend a nickel on beauty until it has filled every pothole. If this advice was followed, the city might have fewer potholes, but it would make the rest of us yawn with boredom.

It sometimes seemed in the past that Mayor Sam Katz was uninterested in spending taxpayers’ money on beauty and nature when roads were collapsing, but he seems to have evolved on the question, realizing that there’s no point in good roads that lead nowhere interesting.

He once believed, for example, that condos on park property would be good for property values and taxes, an idea he has not tried to resurrect.

Funding for the city’s public art program and for image-route enhancements also remains intact in the capital budget, more evidence, we hope, that beauty is slowly being regarded as a desirable, if not essential, service.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/editorials/park-makeover-begins-70262487.html

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  • What's Cool Around The Web We have returned to see what's cool around the web for this past week: 1. The True Cost of Rent to Own @ Consumerism Commentary. 2. Investing VS Speculating: The Difference Between Building Wealth and...
  • Weekly Roundup - The Credit Card Edition If only for the blunt title, Bend Over... I'll Show You Where You Can Stick Your 'Rewards' was my first pick for the week. Baker takes a strong stand against the credit card industry, so...